Papers

Please see Research for the overview of my research areas.

Publications

1. "Using Large Language Model Annotations for the Social Sciences: A General Framework of Using Predicted Variables in Statistical Analyses."
   Naoki Egami, Musashi Hinck, Brandon M. Stewart, and Hanying Wei
   American Journal of Political Science (Conditionally Accepted)
   [R package]
   This paper generalizes methods proposed in our Neurips paper.

2. "Designing Multi-Site Studies for External Validity: Site Selection via Synthetic Purposive Sampling."
   Naoki Egami and Diana Da In Lee
   American Journal of Political Science (Forthcoming)
   - Winner of the Best Paper Award from the Experimental Research section in APSA.
   [R package]

3. "Beyond Reweighting: On the Predictive Role of Covariate Shift in Effect Generalization."
   Ying Jin, Naoki Egami, and Dominik Rothenhäusler
   Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2025)
   [Journal Page] [arXiv]

4. "Placebo-Augmented PICA Design (PICA-2): Assessing the Influence of Foreign Propaganda."
   Naoki Egami, Donald Green, Eunji Kim, and Daniel Mattingly
   Journal of Politics (Forthcoming)

5. "Correcting the Measurement Errors of AI-assisted Labeling in Image Analysis using Design-based Supervised Learning."
   Alessandra Rister Portinari Maranca, Jihoon Chung, Musashi Hinck, Adam Wolsky, Naoki Egami, and Brandon M. Stewart
   Sociological Methods and Research (2025)
   [R package] [Journal Page] [Appendix]

6. "Identification and Estimation of Causal Peer Effects Using Double Negative Controls for Unmeasured Network Confounding."
   Naoki Egami and Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen
   Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) (2024)
   - Winner of the Best Conference Paper Award from the Political Networks section in APSA.
   [Journal Page] [Appendix] [Video] [arXiv]

7. "Identification of Causal Diffusion Effects Using Placebo Outcomes Under Structural Stationarity."
   Naoki Egami
   Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) (2024)
   - Winner of the Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology from the Society for Political Methodology.
   [Journal Page] [Appendix] [Pre-print] [arXiv]

8. "Elements of External Validity: Framework, Design, and Analysis."
   Naoki Egami and Erin Hartman
   American Political Science Review (2023)
   [Journal Page] [Appendix] [Pre-print] [SSRN]

9. "Using Imperfect Surrogates for Downstream Inference: Design-based Supervised Learning for Social Science Applications of Large Language Models."
   Naoki Egami, Musashi Hinck, Brandon M. Stewart, and Hanying Wei
   Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023)
   [R package] [NeurIPS Page] [Appendix] [arXiv]
   Please also see our new paper, which generalizes methods proposed in this paper.

10. "Leveraging Population Outcomes to Improve the Generalization of Experimental Results."
    Melody Huang, Naoki Egami, Erin Hartman, and Luke Miratrix
    Annals of Applied Statistics (2023)
    [Journal Page] [Appendix] [arXiv]

11. "Using Multiple Pre-treatment Periods to Improve Difference-in-Differences and Staggered Adoption Designs."
    Naoki Egami and Soichiro Yamauchi
    Political Analysis (2023)
    [R package] [Journal Page] [Appendix] [Pre-print] [arXiv]

12. "How to Make Causal Inferences Using Texts."
    Naoki Egami, Christian J. Fong, Justin Grimmer, Margaret E. Roberts, and Brandon M. Stewart
    Science Advances (2022)
    [Journal Page with a commentary from Sridhar and Blei] [Appendix] [arXiv]

13. "Improving the External Validity of Conjoint Analysis: The Essential Role of Profile Distribution."
    Brandon de la Cuesta, Naoki Egami, and Kosuke Imai
    Political Analysis (2022)
    [R package] [Journal Page] [Appendix] [Pre-print]

14. "Hate Crimes and Gender Imbalances."
    Rafaela Dancygier, Naoki Egami, Amaney Jamal, and Ramona Rischke
    American Journal of Political Science (2022)
    [Journal Page] [Appendix]

15. "Covariate Selection for Generalizing Experimental Results: Application to A Large-Scale Development Program in Uganda."
    Naoki Egami and Erin Hartman
    Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) (2021)
    [Journal Page] [Appendix] [Pre-print] [arXiv]

16. "Spillover Effects in the Presence of Unobserved Networks."
    Naoki Egami
    Political Analysis (2021)
    - Winner of the John T. Williams Dissertation Prize from the Society for Political Methodology.
    [Journal Page] [Appendix] [arXiv]

17. "Competing for Loyalists?: How Party Positioning Affects Populist Radical Right Voting."
    Winston Chou, Rafaela Dancygier, Naoki Egami, and Amaney Jamal
    Comparative Political Studies (2021)
    [Journal Page] [Appendix]

18. "Causal Interaction in Factorial Experiments: Application to Conjoint Analysis."
    Naoki Egami and Kosuke Imai
    Journal of the American Statistical Association (2019)
    [R package] [Journal Page] [Appendix]

Selected Working Papers

1. "Conformal Policy Learning: Interventions with Distribution-Free Safety Guarantees."
   Ying Jin and Naoki Egami
   

2. "Quantifying Robustness to External Validity Bias."
   Martin Devaux and Naoki Egami
   [R package]